Bespoke macroeconomic analysis
Custom, timely research geared to investors.
Academic-style and policy papers
Longer-form, in-depth papers.
At Sahm Consulting, I offer data-driven, independent analysis for fund managers, executives, and local business groups on the macroeconomic outlook and the Fed and fiscal policy. Learn more.
Custom, timely research geared to investors.
Longer-form, in-depth papers.
The Fed will remain on hold today, keeping the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
With recession odds rising and the stock market down, it is no surprise that President Trump thinks the Fed's ‘wait-and-see’ approach to rate cuts is a mistake.
The parade of Fedspeakers this week affirmed key messages from the Fed meeting last week: uncertainty about the outlook, some pessimism about inflation and growth this year with risks skewed toward stagflation, and a willingness to wait for more information before adjusting policy.