Bespoke macroeconomic analysis
Custom, timely research geared to investors.
Academic-style and policy papers
Longer-form, in-depth papers.
At Sahm Consulting, I offer data-driven, independent analysis for fund managers, executives, and local business groups on the macroeconomic outlook and the Fed and fiscal policy. Learn more.
Custom, timely research geared to investors.
Longer-form, in-depth papers.
The parade of Fedspeakers this week affirmed key messages from the Fed meeting last week: uncertainty about the outlook, some pessimism about inflation and growth this year with risks skewed toward stagflation, and a willingness to wait for more information before adjusting policy.
DOGE is unlikely to cause a US recession, but its "move fast and break things" approach raises the risks.
Last week, we learned that the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.47% in January, well above expectations.