My views on the economy are always grounded in data. I use official statistics, sentiment surveys, Big Data, and empirical findings from other researchers. I was trained on the Fed forecast to tell a rigorous story about the economy and update that story as new data become available.
Monetary or fiscal policy is often the lens through which I discuss the economy, its current conditions, and where it is likely headed. I have shared my analysis with US and foreign government advisers, investors, business leaders, students, and the press.
The Phillips curve, which says that there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment, has shifted around notably in recent decades. It was central to arguments, which proved incorrect, that the United States needed a recession to bring inflation down. In fact, as shown by the blue dots, in the past few years, inflation dropped while the unemployment rate remained below four percent.