Claudia Sahm


I am a highly regarded expert on the macroeconomy and monetary and fiscal policy with many years of experience advising key decision-makers at the Federal Reserve, White House, and Congress. I developed the Sahm rule, a closely followed recession indicator. I am an independent consultant delivering data-driven, distinct perspectives for fund managers, business executives, government officials, and other leaders of institutions on the macroeconomic outlook and monetary and fiscal policy.


Bespoke analysis on a range of topics and depth.
Investor Talks & Calls
Talks on client-driven topics with original empirical analysis, research, and policy insights.
Public Speaking
Keynote speaker or panelist for various audiences.
Media Engagement
Interviews on TV and in print across media outlets.
Opinion Writing
Writing on timely economic and policy topics in a distinct voice.


Claudia Sahm is the founder of Sahm Consulting, and a regular contributor at Bloomberg Opinion. She has policy and research expertise in macroeconomics, consumer spending, and household finance. She created the “Sahm Rule,” an automatic trigger for stimulus payments in recessions. Previously, she was a section chief at the Federal Reserve, where she oversaw the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking. Before that she worked for ten years on the staff’s macroeconomic forecast. She was a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers. Sahm holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Michigan (2007), and a bachelor’s degree in economics, political science, and German from Denison University (1998).